Logical Reasoning: Causal Reasoning
The single most common argument on the section: an arrow claimed between two events, and the four other pictures that fit the very same data.
8 topics · 33 questions
Each topic is a path, not a menu: work down it in order and every question builds on the one above. Click any of them to watch the answer draw itself.
What a Causal Claim Asserts
- How it worksHow does a causal claim draw as an arrow between two events rather than a line between two columns?
- Worked exampleWalk me through pulling the exact cause and exact effect out of 'Cities that added bike lanes saw fewer crashes'.
- Common mistakeWhy doesn't a case with the cause present and the effect missing leave a causal conclusion untouched?
- Going furtherWhat changes when the causal claim is about one single event instead of a whole population?
Your turneasy1 of 3
Transport review: across the 23 cities that installed protected bike lanes, crashes involving cyclists fell by 34 percent over the following two years. The lanes cut crashes. Which one of the following states the cause and the effect that the review's conclusion asserts?Correlation Is Not Causation
- How it worksHow does a pair of rising lines get redrawn four different ways using exactly the same data?
- Worked exampleWalk me through the leap in 'Students who eat breakfast score higher, so breakfast raises scores'.
- Common mistakeWhy isn't a very tight correlation any better evidence of causation than a loose one?
- Going furtherWhat changes about the leap when the numbers come from a controlled experiment instead of a survey?
Your turneasy1 of 3
School report: of the 1514 students surveyed, those who eat breakfast scored 11 points higher on the year's assessment than those who skip it. Eating breakfast raises test scores. Which one of the following most accurately describes the flaw in the report's reasoning?Reversed Causation
- How it worksHow does a correlation survive completely intact when you flip its arrow end for end?
- Worked exampleWalk me through reversing the arrow in 'Confident speakers get promoted, so confidence earns promotions'.
- Common mistakeWhy doesn't the cause being mentioned first prove that it came first in the world?
Your turneasy1 of 3
Wellbeing study: of the 2241 adults surveyed, those who exercise at least 7 hours a week report higher happiness than those who do not. Exercise makes people happier. Which one of the following, if true, most weakens the study's conclusion?The Third Cause
- How it worksHow does one hidden cause feeding two arrows manufacture a correlation between its own effects?
- Worked exampleWalk me through finding the common cause behind 'Towns with more churches also have more bars'.
- Common mistakeWhy doesn't ruling out a reversed arrow leave causation as the last option standing?
- Going furtherWhat happens to the common-cause objection when a study already controlled for income and age?
Your turnmedium1 of 3
Across 62 towns in one county, the number of churches and the number of bars are closely correlated. A commentator concludes that churches draw drinkers to a town. Which one of the following, if true, most undermines that conclusion?Coincidence and Unrepresentative Samples
- How it worksHow does a small or self-selected group manufacture a pattern the whole population does not have?
- Going furtherWhat changes when the pattern was spotted first and the hypothesis written up afterwards?
- Worked exampleWalk me through the sampling problem in 'Nine of our ten happiest customers use the app daily'.
- Common mistakeWhy isn't a huge sample automatically a representative one?
Your turneasy1 of 3
An investment letter reports that for 16 straight years the winner of a particular football match has predicted the direction of the stock market, and concludes that the match result moves the market. Which one of the following is the best objection?Strengthening a Causal Argument
- How it worksHow do the three classic strengtheners work: kill an alternative, repeat the result, remove the cause?
- Worked exampleFind what most strengthens 'The new lamp cut errors, since errors fell after we installed it'.
- Worked exampleWalk me through why 'a second factory saw the identical drop' props up a causal claim about the first.
- Common mistakeWhy doesn't an answer that simply repeats the correlation add any support at all?
- Going furtherWhat changes when a strengthener rules out an alternative that nobody had even raised?
Your turnmedium1 of 3
Plant manager: after we installed the new lamps in the 12 assembly bays, assembly errors fell by 29 percent. The lamps cut the errors. Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the manager's conclusion?Weakening a Causal Argument
- How it worksHow does supplying an alternative cause weaken a conclusion while contradicting no stated fact?
- Worked exampleFind what most weakens 'Sleeping eight hours caused the team's eleven-game win streak'.
- Worked exampleWalk me through weakening 'Music lessons raise test scores' by turning the arrow around.
- Common mistakeWhy isn't one case of the effect without the cause always enough to sink the claim?
- Going furtherWhat happens to a weakener when the conclusion is hedged down to 'probably contributed to'?
Your turneasy1 of 3
Coach: since the squad began sleeping 9 hours a night, we have won 11 games in a row. The extra sleep is what produced the streak. Which one of the following, if true, most weakens the coach's conclusion?Causal Language Hidden in Ordinary Verbs
- How it worksHow do verbs like 'leads to', 'produces' and 'drives' quietly install an arrow inside a sentence?
- Worked exampleWalk me through spotting the buried causal claim in 'Longer recess gives students sharper focus'.
- Common mistakeWhy doesn't a conclusion phrased as 'is associated with' carry the same burden as 'causes'?
- Going furtherWhat changes about your attack when a conclusion says 'helped cause' rather than 'caused'?
Your turnmedium1 of 3
Council spokesman: the parking law passed in 2021 is responsible for the 26 percent drop in high-street vacancies. A listener says this is not a causal claim, since the word 'cause' does not appear. Which one of the following is the best assessment?AP®, SAT® and PSAT/NMSQT® are trademarks registered by the College Board (PSAT/NMSQT® jointly with the National Merit Scholarship Corporation). ACT® is a registered trademark of ACT Education Corp. GRE® is a registered trademark of ETS. LSAT® is a registered trademark of the Law School Admission Council. MCAT® is a registered trademark of the Association of American Medical Colleges. ISEE® and SSAT® are registered trademarks of their owners. None of these organizations is affiliated with, or endorses, Jentoo.