AP® Statistics · Unit 3 · Topic 3.5
Conditions for a Proportion Test
Before trusting a significance test for a proportion, you must check that the data were randomly collected, the observations are independent, and the sample is large enough for the normal approximation to hold.
A test's p-value comes from a normal curve, and that curve only describes the sampling distribution of p-hat accurately when certain things are true about the data. So before computing anything, you check three conditions. Random: the data must come from a random sample or random assignment, or the test's logic about what results would look like by chance falls apart. Independence: one observation can't influence another, which you justify either because the sampling was done without replacement from a population at least 10 times the sample size, or because of how a random process was run. Large counts: the sample needs to be big enough that the sampling distribution of p-hat is approximately normal, checked by requiring n times p0 and n times (1 minus p0) to both be at least 10.
The key twist for tests, compared to confidence intervals, is that large counts uses p0, the null hypothesis value, not p-hat. A test is built on the assumption that the null hypothesis is true — that's the whole premise of asking 'how surprising would this sample be if p0 were correct?' So every calculation under that assumption, including whether the normal approximation is valid, has to use p0 instead of the sample proportion.
If the sample wasn't randomly selected, you don't get to use this machinery at all in a trustworthy way: any conclusion only applies to the specific sample, and inference to a wider population is no longer statistically justified, no matter how large n is. This sets up the test itself in the next topic, where these three checks become the required first step you show before calculating a test statistic and p-value.
Key terms
- Random condition
- Requires the data to come from a random sample or random assignment so chance-based reasoning applies.
- Independence condition
- Requires observations not to affect each other, often checked with the 10% condition for sampling without replacement.
- Large counts condition
- Requires n times p0 and n times (1 minus p0) to both be at least 10 so the normal approximation is valid.
- Null value (p0)
- The proportion assumed true under the null hypothesis, used in all test calculations including conditions.
- 10% condition
- A guideline that independence holds if the sample size is no more than 10% of the population.
Watch it explained
- How it worksWalk me through checking randomness, independence, and large counts for a proportion test.
- Worked exampleShow me the condition check for testing p = 0.5 with n = 80 from a town of 40,000.
- Common mistakeWhy isn't the large counts condition checked with p-hat instead of the null value?
- Going furtherWhat happens to your conclusion when the sample was not randomly selected?
Check yourself
End of topic.