AP® Statistics · Unit 4 · Topic 4.4

Hypotheses for a Population Mean

Hypotheses for a mean are statements about the population parameter mu, not the sample mean. The null always sets mu equal to a claimed value, and the alternative states the direction the claim suggests.

Every hypothesis test for a mean starts with a claim about the true population average, mu. You can't test that claim directly, so you translate it into two competing statements. The null hypothesis, H0, always says mu equals some specific number: the value nothing-has-changed would predict, or the value the manufacturer advertises. The alternative hypothesis, Ha, says what you'd believe instead if the evidence pushes against the null. It can point one direction, mu less than that number or mu greater than it, or it can go two directions at once, mu not equal to it, depending on exactly what the claim asserts.

To build these from a real claim, find the number being promised, and find the direction of suspicion. A machine that's supposed to fill bottles to 500 mL but is suspected of underfilling gives you H0: mu = 500 against Ha: mu < 500. Notice the null carries the equals sign even though the real-world suspicion is 'less than' — the null is the benchmark you test against, not the claim you expect to win. The alternative carries whatever direction the research question actually cares about: less than, greater than, or simply different from.

This hypothesis-writing step is the opening move of the entire inference process for means. Once mu and its direction are pinned down, the rest of the test — computing a t statistic, finding a p-value from the t-distribution because the population standard deviation is unknown, and comparing that p-value to a significance level — follows the same structure used for proportions. Get the hypotheses wrong and every later calculation answers the wrong question, so this step is where accuracy has to start.

Key terms

mu
The true population mean, a fixed but unknown number that hypotheses make claims about.
null hypothesis (H0)
The statement that mu equals a specific claimed value, treated as true until evidence says otherwise.
alternative hypothesis (Ha)
The statement that mu is less than, greater than, or not equal to the claimed value.
one-sided alternative
An alternative hypothesis specifying a direction, such as mu < 500 or mu > 500.
two-sided alternative
An alternative hypothesis stating only that mu differs from the claimed value, with no direction specified.

Watch it explained

  1. How it worksWalk me through turning a manufacturer's claim into a null and alternative about mu.
  2. Worked exampleFind the hypotheses for testing whether a machine fills bottles to less than 500 mL.
  3. Common mistakeWhy isn't the null hypothesis ever written about x-bar?

Check yourself

Your turn1 of 2
A manufacturer claims a machine fills bottles to less than 500 mL on average. What are the correct hypotheses for testing this claim?

End of topic.